If anything is moving at "Internet speed" at the start of the new millennium, it is the Internet itself. No technology has established itself so rapidly in the marketplace.
If anything is moving at "Internet speed" at the start of the new millennium, it is the Internet itself. No technology has established itself so rapidly in the marketplace.
Bill Gates envisions the next-generation Internet as a single, unified interface to information instantly available to you anywhere, any time.
Originally published 2000 (shorter version) in The Economist. Published on KurzweilAI.net February 22, 2001.
If anything is moving at "Internet speed" at the start of the new millennium, it is the Internet itself. No technology has established itself so rapidly in the marketplace.
On average, it took the telephone around 40 years to reach a quarter of the population in developed countries. Today, only five years after most consumers learned of the Internet's existence, it has already raced past that milestone in many nations. In the U.S., 40% of the population now uses the Internet, while in Iceland, Singapore, New Zealand and some Scandinavian countries, more than 50% does so.
We may be a long way from bridging the digital divide, but progress is amazing: In 2001 more than 400 million people worldwide will surf the Web's four billion pages and, according to IDC, spend half a trillion dollars on goods and services in the process. The Internet is already revolutionizing the way we live, work, learn, shop and play.
Yet for all its wonders, the technology is today roughly where the automobile was when Henry Ford launched his Model T. Both the Internet and the PCs we use to access it represent a big advance on the age of the mainframe--computing's horse and buggy era--but digital technology still has a long way to go.
In many respects, today's Internet actually mirrors the old mainframe model, with the browser playing the role of "dumb terminal." All the information you want is located in centralized databases, and served up a page at a time (from a single Web site at a time) to individual users. Web pages are simply an HTML "picture" of the data you need, not the underlying data itself. You can look but you can't touch-editing, annotating or otherwise customizing the data is hard to do because it wasn't designed to make that possible. If you want to pull together data from multiple Web sites, you often end up scribbling it down on a notepad.
That's a long way from the "intercreative space" envisioned by Tim Berners-Lee, whose pioneering work lead to the creation of the Web. The structure of today's Internet also makes exchanging data--whether a transaction between businesses or personal information between devices--incredibly complex.
Because the Internet can in theory be accessed any time, any place and from any intelligent device, it looks tailor-made to act as a global exchange mechanism for any kind of data. But because the underlying data on today's Web sites isn't fully accessible by other sites, applications or devices, the reality is a Web of isolated islands of data that can't collaborate with each other in any useful way. And each new way to access the Internet--tablet PCs, Web-enabled TVs and cellphones, smart pagers--adds another layer of complexity. Internet users end up living in several separate worlds: the worlds of applications on PCs, of various kinds of intelligent devices, and of Web sites themselves.
To transform itself into more than a medium that simply presents static information, the next generation Internet needs to solve these problems. Instead of being made up of isolated islands where the user often provides the only integration, it must enable constellations of computers, intelligent devices and Web-based services to collaborate seamlessly. It must help businesses offer products and services in ways that let their customers customize them according to their needs. It must offer individuals complete control over how, when and what information is delivered to them, and allow them to protect their privacy and security by controlling who has access to their personal information.
At the core of that transformation is Extensible Markup Language, or XML. An open industry standard defined by the World Wide Web Consortium (with extensive input from Microsoft and other high-tech companies), XML offers a way to separate a Web page's underlying data from the presentational view of that data. It works in a similar way to HyperText Markup Language (HTML), which uses "tags" to defines how data is displayed on today's Web pages. XML uses tags to provide a common way of defining precisely what the underlying data actually is.
The effect of this technological lingua franca on the future of the Internet will be far-reaching. XML "unlocks" data so that it can be organized, programmed, edited and exchanged with other sites, applications and devices. In effect, it turns every Web page into a programmable mini-database (so you can actually analyze those stock price statistics you find on the Web without having to cut-and-paste them into a spreadsheet first).
XML enables different Web sites to share all kinds of data without having to use the same computer language or software application. Individual Web sites can collaborate to provide a variety of Web-based services that can interact intelligently with each other. And information can move from one device to another without the need for today's separate applications, with their widely varying interfaces, functionality and (in)compatibility.
The next generation Internet will be a computing and communications platform in the same way that the PC is. Programs "written to" the Internet (just as they are written to the PC platform) will run across multiple Web sites, drawing on information and services from each of them, and combining and delivering them in customized form to any device you like.
The distinction between the Internet and your PC or other devices will break down--advanced software (like that at the heart of Microsoft's .NET initiative) will automatically determine whether the information, applications or services you need are available locally or remotely, then bring them together to best serve your needs.
As the barriers between online information, services and devices break down, how you interact with them will also be revolutionized. Today, you use separate software applications for every computing task you want to perform, whether it's browsing the Web, writing and editing, e-mail and instant messaging, your calendar and contacts.
The next generation Internet will enable a more integrated approach. You'll use a single, unified interface that moves transparently between the Internet and the PC or device you are using, allowing you to browse, write, edit, schedule, communicate or analyze data. I see it as a "universal canvas" for the Internet Age.
You'll also interact with your computer in many more ways. Today, the amount of email I receive that has handwriting or voice annotation is negligible. In future, the majority of messages will come in some form other than typed text. Today, you always know whether you're on the Internet or on your PC's hard drive.
Tomorrow, you won't care and you may not even know. Everything on the Internet, your local intranet, your PC and other devices will be available as potential "building blocks" for a new generation of Web-based services. Your business and personal information will be securely stored on the Internet, automatically synchronized and instantly available to you and the Web-based services you need--no matter where you are, what you are doing, or what device you are using.
Everything that can think will link--transparently and automatically. So if you are traveling and need medical attention, your personal physician service will be able to locate the best local doctor, make an appointment that fits into your schedule, share the appropriate medical records and arrange payment. All you'll need to do is give your permission.
Think of it as a "personal Web," intelligently acting on you and your family's behalf. Think of it as the ultimate business tool, boosting your firm's productivity, cutting costs, streamlining transactions, vastly increasing the range of services it can offer, and taking a big step closer to friction-free capitalism.
Just as the system of musical notation made the orchestration of instruments possible, the power of XML and advanced software is making the orchestration of online and offline data and services a reality--and revolutionizing computing and communications during the first decade of the 21st century.
The next generation Internet will look a lot like today's Internet--but under the hood the two will have as much in common as today's automobiles have with Ford's flivver.
A shorter version of this article was published in The Economist in "The World in 2001" Join the discussion about this article on Mind•X!
The Virtual Thomas Edison
by Ray Kurzweil
As machines exceed human intelligence, will they threaten humanity? How will inventors keep up? Raymond Kurzweil lays out his vision of the future for Time Magazine's special issue on the future.
Originally published November 30, 2000 at Time.com. Published on KurzweilAI.net March 22, 2001.
Robots--even ones more intelligent than M.I.T.'s Kismet--are coming, the inevitable result of accelerating technological revolutions. The exponential growth of computing, communications, brain scanning and brain "reverse engineering," combined with rapid miniaturization, will bring machines that can equal or exceed human intelligence within three decades.
Is this good news? Or is this a threat to humanity's perch of evolutionary superiority? Alarm at the specter of ceding control over the creative process to machines has catapulted the debate beyond the scientific community and into the public forum. Bill Joy, co-founder of Sun Microsystems, has written about a wide range of dangers that could arise when we no longer have our metaphorical hands "on the plug."
Before we indulge these philosophical concerns, it's worth exploring just how intelligent and inventive machines are evolving. A powerful paradigm for emulating the creative process in a computer is to copy the ways of nature. One particularly compelling "biologically inspired" approach is actually to simulate the process of evolution inside the computer.
Brandeis University professors Jordan Pollack and Hod Lipson recently used "genetic" algorithms to design simple robots, which were then assembled by other robots. General Electric also uses genetic algorithms, in the design of jet engines, and its simulation of evolution produces designs superior to those created by unaided human designers. Microsoft has reportedly evolved some of the software it uses to balance system resources rather than have human programmers explicitly write these codes.
Another approach is to create "neural nets"--simulated versions of neurons and their massive interconnections that, while highly simplified, are able to solve real-world design problems and come up with unexpected though still appropriate solutions. These and related methods are also used in computer programs that "automatically" create art, music and poetry. The results of emulating nature in this way can be surprisingly effective, often solving difficult engineering and other design problems. However, as a human inventor who routinely uses these techniques, I can report that I continue to feel that I am still in charge of the process; they feel like just another set of yet more powerful tools.
A Time Line
So when will this feeling of apparent control change? When will we regard machine intelligence as the true originator of something creative?
In my view, the advent of the fully creative machine will not arrive overnight but will continue to evolve in stages, as machine intelligence continues its progression up the skill ladder. The first computers were designed during World War II with pen on paper and assembled by hand with screwdrivers and wiring tools. Today a computer designer sits at a graphics terminal and specifies sets of high-level design parameters. The computer performs dozens of intermediate design stages of circuit schematics, board layouts and even the chips themselves. Then other computers actually build and assemble these components into working systems. The tasks these machines perform required highly skilled engineers and technicians just a couple of decades ago. Such "computer-assisted design" software packages are now used in every engineering discipline, as well as by architects and clothes designers. They represent the latest chapter in the story of automation, which started by amplifying the power of our muscles and in recent times has been amplifying the power of our minds. Since the Industrial Revolution was born two centuries ago with automated textile machines for the English clothing industry, we have been eliminating jobs at the bottom of the skill ladder while creating new (and, incidentally, more interesting and better paying) jobs at the top of the skill ladder. This process has progressed to the point where we are harnessing machines to assist with the creative process of creating yet better machines.
By the end of this decade, it will be possible for people without technical training to use an even more sophisticated generation of design tools to create complex electronic and mechanical systems. Many products will be designed not by research-and-development departments (at least not directly) but by professionals who understand the needs of their markets, aided by increasingly intelligent Web-research tools. Even consumers will design their own products, ranging from their clothes to their homes. We will continue to regard these machines as tools, but they will emerge as remarkably powerful amplifiers of the human creative process.
Equal Partners
By 2020, machines will emerge as true collaborators. They will have sufficient understanding of human language and culture to monitor trends on their own. And since they will have the speed (and patience) to read most of the world's literature and websites (albeit still not with the discernment that comes with full human intelligence), they will identify market opportunities on their own and bring them to our attention, along with their own suggested designs. We will then try out their creations either in virtual-reality simulations or as actual physical products produced by rapid prototyping machines. By this time, the line between human and machine creativity will indeed begin to blur.
Within three decades, machines will be as intelligent as humans. By 2030 the available computer hardware will exceed the memory and processing capacity of the human brain by a factor of thousands. Though raw capacity alone does not automatically provide human levels of intelligence, we will have largely completed the reverse engineering of the human brain. Powerful, biologically inspired models based on the various templates of human intelligence will be capable of simulating human thought processes and will ultimately do so at far greater speeds and with far greater overall capacity than unaided human thought.
So what would a thousand simulated scientists and engineers, each with a thousand times greater memory and each thinking at speeds at least a thousand times faster than today's human inventors, accomplish? What would they invent? Well, for one thing, they would invent technologies that would allow them to become even more intelligent (because their intelligence is no longer of fixed capacity). They would change their own thought processes to think "bigger" and more complex thoughts-and to think them faster. When and if these "inventors" evolve to be a million times more intelligent and operate a million times faster, then in today's terms, an hour would result in a century of progress.
The Next Question
Which, of course, brings up the issue of how we mere human inventors are going to keep up. As an inventor, I have more than a passing interest in this question. My view, however, is that these developments do not represent an alien invasion of intelligent machines. They are emerging from within our human/machine civilization, and the intelligence we are creating is both derivative of and an extension to our human intelligence. We are already placing today's generation of intelligent machines in our bodies and brains, particularly for those with disabilities (e.g., cochlear implants for the deaf) and diseases (e.g., neural implants for Parkinson's patients). By 2030 there will be ubiquitous use of surgery-free neural implants introduced into our brains by billions of "nanobots" (i.e., microscopic yet intelligent robots) traveling through our capillaries. These noninvasive neural implants will routinely expand our mind through direct connection with nonbiological intelligence.
These prospects will bring enormous benefits, such as vastly expanded wealth, longevity and knowledge. We will have the ability to overcome most diseases, clean up the environment and alleviate illiteracy and poverty. However, deeply intertwined with these gains will be profound new risks. New concerns will include such questions as "Who is controlling the nanobots?" and "Whom are the nanobots talking to?" For example, organizations (e.g., governments, extremist groups) could distribute trillions of undetectable nanobots that could then monitor, influence or even control our thoughts and actions. Nanobot self-replication run amuck could have the potential to create a nonbiological cancer. And as for intelligent robots, how can we be sure they will remain our faithful servants, or even our friends?
Technology has always been a double-edged sword, and we don't have to look further than today to see both profound promise and peril. It is important to understand that these developments are not emerging from a few isolated projects but are the inevitable result of many thousands of competitive efforts. We would have to repeal free enterprise and every visage of economic competition to prevent the ongoing progression of these technologies. In the end, we will have no choice but to address the threats emerging from technology through a combination of ethical standards, technological "immune systems" and law enforcement. Although I believe the hazards are real, I am optimistic that we will ameliorate these dangers while we overcome age-old problems of human distress. The merger of humanity and its technology is the inevitable next step in the evolutionary progress of intelligence on our planet.
Within three decades machines will be as intelligent as human beings .
The Virtual Thomas Edison reproduced with permission. Copyright (C) 2000 Time, Inc.
Join the discussion about this article on Mind•X!
Bill Gates envisions the next-generation Internet as a single, unified interface to information instantly available to you anywhere, any time.
Originally published 2000 (shorter version) in The Economist. Published on KurzweilAI.net February 22, 2001.
If anything is moving at "Internet speed" at the start of the new millennium, it is the Internet itself. No technology has established itself so rapidly in the marketplace.
On average, it took the telephone around 40 years to reach a quarter of the population in developed countries. Today, only five years after most consumers learned of the Internet's existence, it has already raced past that milestone in many nations. In the U.S., 40% of the population now uses the Internet, while in Iceland, Singapore, New Zealand and some Scandinavian countries, more than 50% does so.
We may be a long way from bridging the digital divide, but progress is amazing: In 2001 more than 400 million people worldwide will surf the Web's four billion pages and, according to IDC, spend half a trillion dollars on goods and services in the process. The Internet is already revolutionizing the way we live, work, learn, shop and play.
Yet for all its wonders, the technology is today roughly where the automobile was when Henry Ford launched his Model T. Both the Internet and the PCs we use to access it represent a big advance on the age of the mainframe--computing's horse and buggy era--but digital technology still has a long way to go.
In many respects, today's Internet actually mirrors the old mainframe model, with the browser playing the role of "dumb terminal." All the information you want is located in centralized databases, and served up a page at a time (from a single Web site at a time) to individual users. Web pages are simply an HTML "picture" of the data you need, not the underlying data itself. You can look but you can't touch-editing, annotating or otherwise customizing the data is hard to do because it wasn't designed to make that possible. If you want to pull together data from multiple Web sites, you often end up scribbling it down on a notepad.
That's a long way from the "intercreative space" envisioned by Tim Berners-Lee, whose pioneering work lead to the creation of the Web. The structure of today's Internet also makes exchanging data--whether a transaction between businesses or personal information between devices--incredibly complex.
Because the Internet can in theory be accessed any time, any place and from any intelligent device, it looks tailor-made to act as a global exchange mechanism for any kind of data. But because the underlying data on today's Web sites isn't fully accessible by other sites, applications or devices, the reality is a Web of isolated islands of data that can't collaborate with each other in any useful way. And each new way to access the Internet--tablet PCs, Web-enabled TVs and cellphones, smart pagers--adds another layer of complexity. Internet users end up living in several separate worlds: the worlds of applications on PCs, of various kinds of intelligent devices, and of Web sites themselves.
To transform itself into more than a medium that simply presents static information, the next generation Internet needs to solve these problems. Instead of being made up of isolated islands where the user often provides the only integration, it must enable constellations of computers, intelligent devices and Web-based services to collaborate seamlessly. It must help businesses offer products and services in ways that let their customers customize them according to their needs. It must offer individuals complete control over how, when and what information is delivered to them, and allow them to protect their privacy and security by controlling who has access to their personal information.
At the core of that transformation is Extensible Markup Language, or XML. An open industry standard defined by the World Wide Web Consortium (with extensive input from Microsoft and other high-tech companies), XML offers a way to separate a Web page's underlying data from the presentational view of that data. It works in a similar way to HyperText Markup Language (HTML), which uses "tags" to defines how data is displayed on today's Web pages. XML uses tags to provide a common way of defining precisely what the underlying data actually is.
The effect of this technological lingua franca on the future of the Internet will be far-reaching. XML "unlocks" data so that it can be organized, programmed, edited and exchanged with other sites, applications and devices. In effect, it turns every Web page into a programmable mini-database (so you can actually analyze those stock price statistics you find on the Web without having to cut-and-paste them into a spreadsheet first).
XML enables different Web sites to share all kinds of data without having to use the same computer language or software application. Individual Web sites can collaborate to provide a variety of Web-based services that can interact intelligently with each other. And information can move from one device to another without the need for today's separate applications, with their widely varying interfaces, functionality and (in)compatibility.
The next generation Internet will be a computing and communications platform in the same way that the PC is. Programs "written to" the Internet (just as they are written to the PC platform) will run across multiple Web sites, drawing on information and services from each of them, and combining and delivering them in customized form to any device you like.
The distinction between the Internet and your PC or other devices will break down--advanced software (like that at the heart of Microsoft's .NET initiative) will automatically determine whether the information, applications or services you need are available locally or remotely, then bring them together to best serve your needs.
As the barriers between online information, services and devices break down, how you interact with them will also be revolutionized. Today, you use separate software applications for every computing task you want to perform, whether it's browsing the Web, writing and editing, e-mail and instant messaging, your calendar and contacts.
The next generation Internet will enable a more integrated approach. You'll use a single, unified interface that moves transparently between the Internet and the PC or device you are using, allowing you to browse, write, edit, schedule, communicate or analyze data. I see it as a "universal canvas" for the Internet Age.
You'll also interact with your computer in many more ways. Today, the amount of email I receive that has handwriting or voice annotation is negligible. In future, the majority of messages will come in some form other than typed text. Today, you always know whether you're on the Internet or on your PC's hard drive.
Tomorrow, you won't care and you may not even know. Everything on the Internet, your local intranet, your PC and other devices will be available as potential "building blocks" for a new generation of Web-based services. Your business and personal information will be securely stored on the Internet, automatically synchronized and instantly available to you and the Web-based services you need--no matter where you are, what you are doing, or what device you are using.
Everything that can think will link--transparently and automatically. So if you are traveling and need medical attention, your personal physician service will be able to locate the best local doctor, make an appointment that fits into your schedule, share the appropriate medical records and arrange payment. All you'll need to do is give your permission.
Think of it as a "personal Web," intelligently acting on you and your family's behalf. Think of it as the ultimate business tool, boosting your firm's productivity, cutting costs, streamlining transactions, vastly increasing the range of services it can offer, and taking a big step closer to friction-free capitalism.
Just as the system of musical notation made the orchestration of instruments possible, the power of XML and advanced software is making the orchestration of online and offline data and services a reality--and revolutionizing computing and communications during the first decade of the 21st century.
The next generation Internet will look a lot like today's Internet--but under the hood the two will have as much in common as today's automobiles have with Ford's flivver.
A shorter version of this article was published in The Economist in "The World in 2001" Join the discussion about this article on Mind•X!
The Virtual Thomas Edison
by Ray Kurzweil
As machines exceed human intelligence, will they threaten humanity? How will inventors keep up? Raymond Kurzweil lays out his vision of the future for Time Magazine's special issue on the future.
Originally published November 30, 2000 at Time.com. Published on KurzweilAI.net March 22, 2001.
Robots--even ones more intelligent than M.I.T.'s Kismet--are coming, the inevitable result of accelerating technological revolutions. The exponential growth of computing, communications, brain scanning and brain "reverse engineering," combined with rapid miniaturization, will bring machines that can equal or exceed human intelligence within three decades.
Is this good news? Or is this a threat to humanity's perch of evolutionary superiority? Alarm at the specter of ceding control over the creative process to machines has catapulted the debate beyond the scientific community and into the public forum. Bill Joy, co-founder of Sun Microsystems, has written about a wide range of dangers that could arise when we no longer have our metaphorical hands "on the plug."
Before we indulge these philosophical concerns, it's worth exploring just how intelligent and inventive machines are evolving. A powerful paradigm for emulating the creative process in a computer is to copy the ways of nature. One particularly compelling "biologically inspired" approach is actually to simulate the process of evolution inside the computer.
Brandeis University professors Jordan Pollack and Hod Lipson recently used "genetic" algorithms to design simple robots, which were then assembled by other robots. General Electric also uses genetic algorithms, in the design of jet engines, and its simulation of evolution produces designs superior to those created by unaided human designers. Microsoft has reportedly evolved some of the software it uses to balance system resources rather than have human programmers explicitly write these codes.
Another approach is to create "neural nets"--simulated versions of neurons and their massive interconnections that, while highly simplified, are able to solve real-world design problems and come up with unexpected though still appropriate solutions. These and related methods are also used in computer programs that "automatically" create art, music and poetry. The results of emulating nature in this way can be surprisingly effective, often solving difficult engineering and other design problems. However, as a human inventor who routinely uses these techniques, I can report that I continue to feel that I am still in charge of the process; they feel like just another set of yet more powerful tools.
A Time Line
So when will this feeling of apparent control change? When will we regard machine intelligence as the true originator of something creative?
In my view, the advent of the fully creative machine will not arrive overnight but will continue to evolve in stages, as machine intelligence continues its progression up the skill ladder. The first computers were designed during World War II with pen on paper and assembled by hand with screwdrivers and wiring tools. Today a computer designer sits at a graphics terminal and specifies sets of high-level design parameters. The computer performs dozens of intermediate design stages of circuit schematics, board layouts and even the chips themselves. Then other computers actually build and assemble these components into working systems. The tasks these machines perform required highly skilled engineers and technicians just a couple of decades ago. Such "computer-assisted design" software packages are now used in every engineering discipline, as well as by architects and clothes designers. They represent the latest chapter in the story of automation, which started by amplifying the power of our muscles and in recent times has been amplifying the power of our minds. Since the Industrial Revolution was born two centuries ago with automated textile machines for the English clothing industry, we have been eliminating jobs at the bottom of the skill ladder while creating new (and, incidentally, more interesting and better paying) jobs at the top of the skill ladder. This process has progressed to the point where we are harnessing machines to assist with the creative process of creating yet better machines.
By the end of this decade, it will be possible for people without technical training to use an even more sophisticated generation of design tools to create complex electronic and mechanical systems. Many products will be designed not by research-and-development departments (at least not directly) but by professionals who understand the needs of their markets, aided by increasingly intelligent Web-research tools. Even consumers will design their own products, ranging from their clothes to their homes. We will continue to regard these machines as tools, but they will emerge as remarkably powerful amplifiers of the human creative process.
Equal Partners
By 2020, machines will emerge as true collaborators. They will have sufficient understanding of human language and culture to monitor trends on their own. And since they will have the speed (and patience) to read most of the world's literature and websites (albeit still not with the discernment that comes with full human intelligence), they will identify market opportunities on their own and bring them to our attention, along with their own suggested designs. We will then try out their creations either in virtual-reality simulations or as actual physical products produced by rapid prototyping machines. By this time, the line between human and machine creativity will indeed begin to blur.
Within three decades, machines will be as intelligent as humans. By 2030 the available computer hardware will exceed the memory and processing capacity of the human brain by a factor of thousands. Though raw capacity alone does not automatically provide human levels of intelligence, we will have largely completed the reverse engineering of the human brain. Powerful, biologically inspired models based on the various templates of human intelligence will be capable of simulating human thought processes and will ultimately do so at far greater speeds and with far greater overall capacity than unaided human thought.
So what would a thousand simulated scientists and engineers, each with a thousand times greater memory and each thinking at speeds at least a thousand times faster than today's human inventors, accomplish? What would they invent? Well, for one thing, they would invent technologies that would allow them to become even more intelligent (because their intelligence is no longer of fixed capacity). They would change their own thought processes to think "bigger" and more complex thoughts-and to think them faster. When and if these "inventors" evolve to be a million times more intelligent and operate a million times faster, then in today's terms, an hour would result in a century of progress.
The Next Question
Which, of course, brings up the issue of how we mere human inventors are going to keep up. As an inventor, I have more than a passing interest in this question. My view, however, is that these developments do not represent an alien invasion of intelligent machines. They are emerging from within our human/machine civilization, and the intelligence we are creating is both derivative of and an extension to our human intelligence. We are already placing today's generation of intelligent machines in our bodies and brains, particularly for those with disabilities (e.g., cochlear implants for the deaf) and diseases (e.g., neural implants for Parkinson's patients). By 2030 there will be ubiquitous use of surgery-free neural implants introduced into our brains by billions of "nanobots" (i.e., microscopic yet intelligent robots) traveling through our capillaries. These noninvasive neural implants will routinely expand our mind through direct connection with nonbiological intelligence.
These prospects will bring enormous benefits, such as vastly expanded wealth, longevity and knowledge. We will have the ability to overcome most diseases, clean up the environment and alleviate illiteracy and poverty. However, deeply intertwined with these gains will be profound new risks. New concerns will include such questions as "Who is controlling the nanobots?" and "Whom are the nanobots talking to?" For example, organizations (e.g., governments, extremist groups) could distribute trillions of undetectable nanobots that could then monitor, influence or even control our thoughts and actions. Nanobot self-replication run amuck could have the potential to create a nonbiological cancer. And as for intelligent robots, how can we be sure they will remain our faithful servants, or even our friends?
Technology has always been a double-edged sword, and we don't have to look further than today to see both profound promise and peril. It is important to understand that these developments are not emerging from a few isolated projects but are the inevitable result of many thousands of competitive efforts. We would have to repeal free enterprise and every visage of economic competition to prevent the ongoing progression of these technologies. In the end, we will have no choice but to address the threats emerging from technology through a combination of ethical standards, technological "immune systems" and law enforcement. Although I believe the hazards are real, I am optimistic that we will ameliorate these dangers while we overcome age-old problems of human distress. The merger of humanity and its technology is the inevitable next step in the evolutionary progress of intelligence on our planet.
Within three decades machines will be as intelligent as human beings .
The Virtual Thomas Edison reproduced with permission. Copyright (C) 2000 Time, Inc.
Join the discussion about this article on Mind•X!
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