The rate of change of life is dramatically increasing; Implications of Exponential Technological Change

Dr. David Gibbs


Overview
• What does “exponential” mean?
• What is changing “exponentially?”
• The “Singularity”: what, when, how, why?
• Who is Ray Kurzweil?
• What steps lead to the Singularity?
• What will be the impact of GNR?
• What are the perils of GNR?
• How long before the movie comes out?


The Singularity
is a future period
during which
the pace of technological change
will be so rapid,
it‟s impact so deep,
that human life
will be irreversibly transformed.
(The Singularity is Near, Kurzweil)


What is “exponential change?”


“The Singularity will represent the culmination
of the merger of our biological thinking and
existence with our technology, resulting in a
world that is still human but that transcends
our biological roots. “  (Kurzweil)



“There will be no distinction, post-Singularity,
between human and machine or between
physical and virtual reality. “  (Kurzweil)


“I set the date for the Singularityrepresenting a profound and disruptive
transformation in human capability- as 2045.
The nonbiological intelligence created in that
year will be one billion times more
powerful than all human intelligence
today."
The Singularity is Near,
When Humans Transcend
Biology - Ray Kurzweil (2005)



What is the Singularity?
When will it happen?
How will it happen?
Why will it happen?


“Singularity” ?
What is a “singularity” ?


Implications of Exponential
Technological ChangeImplications of Exponential
Technological Change
Dr. David Gibbs
University of Wisconsin-Stevens Point, USA
Presentation to AITP
University of Wisconsin Marathon County
April 21, 2008Overview
• What does “exponential” mean?
• What is changing “exponentially?”
• The “Singularity”: what, when, how, why?
• Who is Ray Kurzweil?
• What steps lead to the Singularity?
• What will be the impact of GNR?
• What are the perils of GNR?
• How long before the movie comes out? ☺
3What is “exponential change?”
4Linear vs. Exponential
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
70000
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17
Exponential
Exponential
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
Linear
LinearLinear vs. Exponential
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
70000
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
Linear
ExponentialExponential Growth
x y = 2^x
0 1
1 2
2 4
3 8
4 16
5 32
6 64
7 128
8 256
9 512
10 1024
11 2048
12 4096
13 8192
14 16384
15 32768
16 65536
17 131072
18 262144
19 524288
20 1048576
21 2097152
22 4194304
23 8388608
24 16777216
25 33554432
26 67108864
27 134217728
28 268435456
29 536870912
30 1073741824
a thousand times in ten years a billion times in thirty yearsExponential Change – visually
x y = 2^x
0 1
1 2
2 4
3 8
4 16
5 32
6 64
7 128
8 256
9 512
10 1024
Graphic from Kurzweil‟s Singularity Presentations 89
50 million
100 million
150 million
200 million
Graphic from Kurzweil‟s Singularity Presentations10
100
10,000
1,000,000
100,000,000
Graphic from Kurzweil‟s Singularity PresentationsGraphical Representation
• Linear plot – each tick mark on the vertical
axis represents the same increase
(“additive”)
• Logarithmic plot – each tick mark on the
vertical axis represents a larger increase
(“multiplicative”)
• Exponential trends, displayed on a
logarithmic graph appear LINEAR
11The Use of Technology is
Increasing Exponentially
12Graphic from Kurzweil‟s Singularity Presentations 13Graphic from Kurzweil‟s Singularity Presentations 14Graphic from Kurzweil‟s Singularity Presentations 15Information Technologies
(of all kinds)
double their power
(price performance, capacity, bandwidth)
every year
16Graphic from Kurzweil‟s Singularity Presentations 17Graphic from Kurzweil‟s Singularity Presentations 18Graphic from Kurzweil‟s Singularity Presentations 19Graphic from Kurzweil‟s Singularity Presentations 20Graphic from Kurzweil‟s Singularity Presentations 21Graphic from Kurzweil‟s Singularity Presentations 22Graphic from Kurzweil‟s Singularity Presentations 23Graphic from Kurzweil‟s Singularity Presentations 24Graphic from Kurzweil‟s Singularity Presentations 25Every form of communications
technology is doubling its
price-performance, bandwidth,
capacity every 12 months
26Graphic from Kurzweil‟s Singularity Presentations 27Graphic from Kurzweil‟s Singularity Presentations 28Graphic from Kurzweil‟s Singularity Presentations 29Graphic from Kurzweil‟s Singularity Presentations 30The rate of change of life is
dramatically increasing
31Graphic from Kurzweil‟s Singularity Presentations 32Graphic from Kurzweil‟s Singularity Presentations 33The Singularity
is a future period
during which
the pace of technological change
will be so rapid,
it‟s impact so deep,
that human life
will be irreversibly transformed.
(The Singularity is Near, Kurzweil)
34“The Singularity will represent the culmination
of the merger of our biological thinking and
existence with our technology, resulting in a
world that is still human but that transcends
our biological roots. “  (Kurzweil)
35“There will be no distinction, post-Singularity,
between human and machine or between
physical and virtual reality. “  (Kurzweil)
36“I set the date for the Singularityrepresenting a profound and disruptive
transformation in human capability- as 2045.
The nonbiological intelligence created in that
year will be one billion times more
powerful than all human intelligence
today."
The Singularity is Near,
When Humans Transcend
Biology - Ray Kurzweil (2005)
37“The future ain‟t what it used to be.”
~ Yogi Berra
38What is the Singularity?
When will it happen?
How will it happen?
Why will it happen?
39“Singularity” ?
What is a “singularity” ?
40The term “singularity”
• From mathematics –
a breakdown point in a
mathematical function where the
result goes to “infinity”;
e.g. f(x) = 1/x
• From astrophysics –
a breakdown in the laws of
modern physics; e.g. a “black
hole”
41first known use of the term
„singularity‟ applied to technology
John von Neumann (1950s):
“the ever-accelerating progress of
technology… gives the appearance of
approaching some essential singularity in the
history of the race beyond which human
affairs as we know them, could not continue.”
42first contemporary use…
Vernor Vinge, computer
science professor and
science fiction writer
(1983 in Omni magazine):
“… a rapidly approaching
“technological singularity” …
43Vinge
“Within thirty years, we will have the technological
means to create superhuman intelligence.
Shortly thereafter, the human era will be
ended…
When greater-than-human intelligence drives
progress, that progress will be much more
rapid.”
The Coming Technological Singularity
Vernor Vinge (1993)
44Kurzweil
“The Singularity will allow us to transcend
the limitations of our biological bodies and
brains. We will gain power over our fates.
Our mortality will be in our own hands.
We will be able to live as long as we want
(a subtly different statement from saying
we will live forever).”
45Who is Ray Kurzweil?
46Who is Ray Kurzweil?
• Born 1948 – Brooklyn, NY
• Graduated M.I.T. 1970
Comp Sci and Literature
• Inventor, Author,
Entrepreneur, Futurist
• Video Intro
47Kurzweil as an Author
• The Age of Intelligent Machines (1989)
• The 10% Solution for a Healthy Life (1993)
• The Age of Spiritual Machines: When Computers
Exceed Human Intelligence (2000)
• Fantastic Voyage: Live Long Enough to Live Forever
(2004)
• The Singularity is Near: When Humans Transcend
Biology (2005)
48Kurzweil as an Inventor and
Entrepreneur
• Kurzweil Technologies
• Kurzweil Computer Products
• Kurzweil Music Systems
• Kurzweil Applied Intelligence
• Kurzweil Educational Systems
• Kurzweil CyberArt Technologies
• FatKat
• Kurzweil AI.Net
• Ray & Terry‟s Longevity Products
• K-FNB Reading Technology, Inc.
49Kurzweil‟s “Firsts”
• The first omni-font optical character recognition
• The first print-to-speech reading machine for the
blind
• The first CCD flat-bed scanner
• The first text-to-speech synthesizer
• The first music synthesizer capable of recreating
the grand piano and other orchestral
instruments
• The first commercially marketed largevocabulary speech recognition
50Kurzweil as a Futurist
Predictions from 1989 book
Reflections from the 2000 book
P: Computer will defeat human in chess by 1998
R: IBM’s Deep Blue defeated Gary Kasparov in
1997
P: World-wide information network will emerge
R: The Web emerged in 1994 and then took off
P: Software-based technologies will dominate in warfare
R: The (first) Gulf War established this paradigm
(1991)
51Kurzweil as a Futurist, cont‟d.
P: Biometric identification will replace locks and keys
R: Speech and facial pattern recognition used to control
access
P: School classrooms will get “wired”
R: Programs were in place in most states
P: Most commercial music will be created on synthesizers
R: TV, movies, recordings use synthesizers,
sequencers, sound generators
P: Continuous Speech Recognition with large vocabularies
will emerge in the early 90s
R: became available in 1996 52Kurzweil as an Expert
• Testimony before the U.S. Congress (2003)
Societal Implications of NanoTechnology
• National Medal of Technology (1999)
• Thirteen honorary doctorates
53Kurzweil as an Evolutionist
• Evolution is a process of creating patterns of
increasing order.
• Evolution works through indirection by creating a
capability and then using that capability to
evolve the next stage (bootstrapping).
• Each stage uses the information-processing
methods of the previous stage to create the
next.
54Evolution: The Six Epochs
Epoch 1: Physics and Chemistry
Epoch 2: Biology and DNA
Epoch 3: Brains
Epoch 4: Technology
Epoch 5: The Merger of Human Technology
with Human Intelligence
Epoch 6: The Universe Wakes Up
55, th
Big Bang
Singularity
Graphic from Kurzweil‟s Singularity Presentations 56Kurzweil examines “evolution”
as an Information-Age Engineer
• “Biological” evolution is not the right term
– “Infosapien” evolution ?
• Information storage and processing is the
key
• Humans and technologies are not seen as
separable; BOTH are integral to each
other and to information.
57Kurzweil examines everything
as an Information-Age Engineer
• “Underlying all of the wonders of life and
misery of disease are information processes,
essentially software programs, that are
surprisingly compact.” (Singularity, p. 206)
• “I take 250 supplements a day and really feel
that I‟m reprogramming my biochemistry, just
like I would reprogram my computers.”
(http://www.fantastic-voyage.net/QandA.htm) 58An old adage:
“To a man with a hammer, everything
looks like a nail.”
By extension:
“To a man with the scientific method,
everything is solvable by science and
engineering.”
59Quoting Kurzweil
• “To this day, I remain convinced of this
basic philosophy: no matter what the
quandaries we face - …the great
scientific, social, and cultural challenges of
our time - there is an idea that can enable
us to prevail.  Furthermore, we can find
that idea.  And when we find it, we need to
implement it.”
(Singularity, p. 2) 60What are the steps to the
Singularity?
61Steps to the Singularity
• Exponentially increasing computer
power
• Three overlapping revolutions: GNR
– Genetics: from now to about 2020
– Nanotechnology: about 2015 to 2030 and
beyond
– Robotics: 2030 to the Singularity and beyond
62inexorable
relentless, stern, unappeasable, unforgiving,
unrelenting (not to be placated or appeased
or moved by entreaty)
[Princeton WordNet]
1. unyielding; unalterable;
2. not to be persuaded, moved, or affected by
prayers or entreaties: an inexorable creditor.
[Dictionary.com]
63• The “sixth paradigm” – 3-D computing, in steps:
– conventional i.c.s but “stacked”
– nanotubes – hexagonal rolls
of carbon atoms
– molecular computing
– quantum computing
Exponentially increasing
computing power
• RESULT
– by 2020, $1000 computer will match the human brain
– by 2040, $1000 computer will be 100 billion times all
human intelligence today
Graphic from Kurzweil‟s Singularity Presentations 64Genetics Revolution: G
• Human genome sequenced in 2003,
2 years ahead of schedule
– March 4, 2008: millionaire spends $350k to
purchase his full genetic sequence (NY Times)
• RNAi (interference) – turn off specific genes
• Cell therapies – grow your own
• Combating heart disease, overcoming
cancer, reversing aging
65Nanotechnology Revolution: N
2015 to 2030 and beyond
“Nanotechnology promises the tools to
rebuild the physical world – our bodies and
brains included – molecular fragment by
molecular fragment, potentially atom by
atom.” (Kurzweil)
Molecular nanotechnology (MNT)
66What is “nano-technology?”
“Nano,” as in VERY SMALL.  HOW SMALL?
1 nanometer (nm) = 10
-9
(one-billionth of a meter)
Water molecule: 0.3nm
DNA chain: 2.5nm across
Red blood cell: 7,000nm
Typical human cell: 20,000nm
Human hair: 100,000 nm across
6768
Nanosystems bearing
Graphic from Kurzweil‟s Singularity PresentationsKurzweil before U.S. Congress
Testimony (2003)
Societal Implications of NanoTechnology (45 pages)
• “Size” of technology is shrinking
• Moral imperative to overcome human affliction
• Economic imperative, in a competitive, capitalist
economy
• Most of technology will be “nanotechnology” by
2020, including manufacturing
• “With the advent of nanotechnology, we will be
able to keep our bodies and brains in a
healthy, optimal state indefinitely.” (p. 3 of 45)
69MNT Examples
• Solar cells, fuel cells, lightweight materials
• Environmental clean-up, water filters
• Nanobots – in the blood stream
– Drug delivery vehicles
– Programmable blood – e.g. respirocytes – mechanical
red-blood cells
• Moving autonomously? No need for a heart…
– destroy pathogens, remove debris, correct DNA errors,
and reverse aging processes
• Utility fog - “foglet” →
70Respirocytes with Red Cells
100 to 1000 times more effective
Copyright Vik Olliver, vik@asi.org.
* Enhanced vs. unenhanced “Olympics” – which will win out?
Graphic from Kurzweil‟s Singularity PresentationsIs the U.S. Government
interested in MNT?
• National Nanotechnology Initiative (NNI)
– 2008 funding of $1.65bn for a total of $8.3bn
since 1002
72Robotics Revolution: R
2030 and beyond
• More accurately, “strong AI”
• Strong Artificial Intelligence
“the creation of nonbiological intelligence
that exceeds that of unenhanced humans”
• Exceeding the Turing Test by
– Share knowledge with other enhanced intelligences
– Apply pattern matching to all data – create “new”
knowledge, rules, laws
– Work with other enhanced intelligences creating
massive supercomputers
73“Will robots inherit the earth?
Yes, but they will be our children.”
~ Marvin Minsky, 1995
74What will be the impact of GNR?
75What will be the impact
on the Human Body?
• Version 2.0 body, accomplished through
incremental steps (soon to 2030s)
– Drugs and supplements to suppress caloric
absorption
– Block individual genes (fat insulin receptor FIR)
– Nanobots performing a wide variety of operations
– Brain augmentation
• Nanobots moving within the brain intercepting neural firings
76What will be the impact
on the Human Body?
• Version 3.0 body, again incrementally
(2030s to Singularity)
– Continue the mechanical augmentation
– Vastly enhanced nonbiological intelligence
– Easily change our bodies, in both virtual
reality and real reality (through MNT)
77What will be the impact
on the Human Brain? – by 2010
• Images projected directly upon our retinas
• Ubiquitous high bandwidth connection to the
Internet at all times
• Full immersion visual-auditory virtual reality
• Augmented real reality
• Interaction with virtual personalities as a primary
interface
• Effective language technologies
• Electronics so tiny it is embedded in the
environment, our clothing, our eyeglasses
(“world wide mesh”) – the “Internet of Things”
78RFID Chips
Radio-frequency-identification
Components
– Chip (with unique ID#)
– Antenna
– ReaderWhat‟s on the chip?
• EPC – electronic product code
• EPC and RFID
• 96 bit code; i.e.  2
96
, or 7.92 x 10
28
unique
ids
How BIG a number is 10
28?How BIG a number is 10
28?
• There are 7.5 x 10
18
grains of sand on
earth (according to Howard C.
McAllister, University of Hawaii)    
http://www.hawaii.edu/suremath/jsand.html
• How many things can be tagged with 10
28
unique ids?
– Everything.   Everything?  Everything!
(HENCE – the “Internet of Things”)ubiquitous
omnipresent; being present everywhere
at once   [Princeton WordNet]
existing or being everywhere, esp. at the same
time; omnipresent   [Dictionary.com]
82Impact on the Human Brain
By 2029, An intimate merger
• $1,000 of computation = 1,000 times the human
brain
• Reverse engineering of the human brain completed
• Computers pass the Turing test
• Nonbiological intelligence combines
– the subtlety and pattern recognition strength of human
intelligence, with
– the speed, memory, and knowledge sharing of machine intelligence
• Nonbiological intelligence will continue to grow
exponentially whereas biological intelligence is
effectively fixed
83What will be the impact
on Human Longevity?
• Three “bridges” to immortality
– Bridge I: apply current knowledge of diet,
lifestyle, supplements
– Bridge II: biotechnology, genetics ~ 2012
– Bridge III: nanotechnology/AI ~ beginning in
the late 2020s, blossoming in the 2030s →
Singularity in ~2045.
Fantastic Voyage: Live Long Enough to Live Forever
84What will be the impact
on Warfare?
• Soldiers
– connected to decentralized network, including
connections to unmanned equipment
– Retinal projections (heads-up display)
– Nanoparticle uniforms
• Self-organizing swarms of robots
• Smart dust – reconnaissance, infiltration
• Nano weapons – smart weapons
85What will be the impact
on Learning?
• Decentralized system allowing “ready access to
the highest quality knowledge and instruction”
– MIT‟s OpenCourseWare (OCW)
• Apply AI to computer assisted instruction
• Full visual-auditory virtual reality environments
– Science experiments, simulations, debates with
historical figures
• (post-Singularity) download “knowledge” directly
86What will be the impact
on Play?
• Full-immersion VR
– By 2020, indistinguishable from real “reality”
“As we enter the 2030s, there won‟t be clear
distinctions between human and machine,
between real and virtual reality, or
between work and play.”  (Kurzweil)
87“First we build the tools,
then they build us.”
~ Marshall McLuhan
88What are the perils of GNR?
89Perils of “Inexorable” GNR
• Biological pathogens
• Nanobots
– Malevolent  bots in food, water supply
– Use of bots as “truth serum” – complete
control of another “human”
– “Gray goo”
• “Smarter than human” robots run amok
(HAL: “I can‟t do that, Dave.”)
90On
The Big Screen
Graphic from Kurzweil‟s Singularity Presentations 91The Singularity is Near – as a Film
• “The Singularity Is Near:
A True Story About The Future”
• Intertwined A-line (documentary) and Bline (narrative)
– Documentary
• Kurzweil
• Drexler (first to describe nanobots)
• de Grey (radical life extension)
• Joy (“The Future Doesn‟t Need Us” – Wired Mag)
• McKibben (Enough)
92The Singularity Is Near:
A True Story About The Future
Narrative: Ray‟s avatar -
Ramona -saves the day!
Played by Pauley Perrette 
Ramona warns DHS of a
“gray goo” attack
93The Singularity – Near…or Not?
• In what ways does it
frighten you?
• Can you stop it?
• Nonsense!  It will
never happen!
• In what ways does it
intrigue you?
• Can you support it?
• Wow!  What a great
time to be alive!
94Charles Dickens, (1812 - 1870)
A Tale of Two Cities
It was the best of times, it was the worst of times, it was the
age of wisdom, it was the age of foolishness, it was the
epoch of belief, it was the epoch of incredulity, it was the
season of Light, it was the season of Darkness, it was
the spring of hope, it was the winter of despair, we had
everything before us, we had nothing before us, we
were all going direct to heaven, we were all going direct
the other way - in short, the period was so far like the
present period, that some of its noisiest authorities
insisted on its being received, for good or for evil, in the
superlative degree of comparison only.• Contact info: David.Gibbs@uwsp.edu
• Presentation and references at:
http://www.uwsp.edu/cis/dgibbs/singularity/
The real problem is not whether machines
think but whether men do.
~ B.F. Skinner
Contingencies of Reinforcement, 1969
96